{"id":5866,"date":"2008-11-04T22:08:16","date_gmt":"2008-11-04T19:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.curaj.net\/?p=5866"},"modified":"2008-11-07T00:19:52","modified_gmt":"2008-11-06T21:19:52","slug":"sua-intre-alb-si-negru-ultimele-sondaje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/?p=5866","title":{"rendered":"SUA \u00eentre alb \u015fi negru (ultimele sondaje)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/mccain-obama.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-358\" style=\"black 1px solid;\" src=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/mccain-obama-263x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"142\" height=\"170\" \/><\/a>Despre alegerile din SUA s-a scris \u015fi s-a spus cam tot. Presa mondial\u0103 a relatat pe larg acest subiect, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t ziua de m\u00e2ine ar putea fi una istoric\u0103. La c\u00e2rma Statelor Unite ale Americii ar putea s\u0103 vin\u0103 primul\u00a0 pre\u015fedinte de culoare sau cel mai \u00een etate pre\u015fedinte american de p\u00e2n\u0103 acum. <\/span><span style=\"#000000;\">M-am g\u00e2ndit c\u0103, \u00eenainte de alegeri, ar fi bine s\u0103 ne uit\u0103m peste sondajele difuzate de 4 institu\u0163ii de cercetare de prestigiu din SUA. Este vorba de Gallup, Rasmussen, Washington Post \u015fi Ipsos. Cea mai mare diferen\u0163\u0103 pe care o sesiz\u0103m \u00een sondajele prezentate este cea de la Gallup. Aici \u00eentre Obama \u015fi McCain este o diferen\u0163\u0103 de 13% \u00een favoarea candidatului democrat, iar cea mai mic\u0103 o d\u0103 Ipsos, de 5 procente. <\/span><span style=\"#000000;\"><!--more-->A\u015fadar iat\u0103 ce prezint\u0103 publicului cele mai importante sondaje de opinie ale SUA cu o zi \u00eenainte de alegeri \u015fi care este evolu\u0163ia celor doi candida\u0163i de la \u00eenceputul campaniei electorale p\u00e2n\u0103 la alegerile de m\u00e2ine. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><strong>1.\u00a0Gallup<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">Dup\u0103 cum spuneam, potrivit Gallup, rezultatele finale ale cercet\u0103rii institutului arat\u0103 c\u0103 diferen\u0163a \u00eentre Obama \u015fi McCain este de 13%. Dup\u0103 cum vedem \u015fi \u00een sondaj, \u00een final, democratul Obama a atins 53%, iar republicanul McCain, 40%. La \u00eenceput candida\u0163ii erau foarte apropia\u0163i ca procentaj, iar diferen\u0163a devine mai accentuat\u0103 \u00een favoarea democratului spre sf\u00e2r\u015fitul campaniei, \u00een special \u00een luna octombrie. Atunci, Colin Powell, fost Secretar de State \u00een timpul administra\u0163iei lui George W Bush Jr., \u00eel nume\u015fte pe Obama\u00a0 &#8222;transformational figure&#8221; (\u201eun om al schimb\u0103rii\u201d).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft alignnone size-full wp-image-354\" src=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/sua-3-gallup.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"609\" height=\"260\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><strong>2.\u00a0Rasmussen<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">Potrivit cercet\u0103rii date, cei doi candida\u0163i se afl\u0103 destul de aproape ca procentaj. Obama are 52% \u015fi McCain 46%. Studiul arat\u0103 c\u0103 dac\u0103 la \u00eenceput McCain a fost cel care se afla \u00een topul preferin\u0163elor (vezi luna martie 2008), apoi, pe parcurs, Obama a reu\u015fit s\u0103-l devanseze pe republican (vezi luna iunie 2008). Era momentul c\u00e2nd Obama s-a declarat candidatul oficial al democra\u0163ilor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft alignnone size-full wp-image-355\" src=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/sua-4-rassmusen.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"615\" height=\"284\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><strong>3.\u00a0Washington Post<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">Studiul \u00een cauz\u0103 arat\u0103 la final o diferen\u0163\u0103 de 11% \u00eentre Obama \u015fi McCain. Astfel, Obama este pe primul loc cu 54% \u015fi McCain din urm\u0103 cu 43%. Potrivit Wash. Post, McCain nu a reu\u015fit niciodat\u0103 s\u0103 fie \u00eenaintea lui Obama. O apropiere mai vizibil\u0103 este \u00een luna septembrie, dup\u0103 care diferen\u0163a \u00eencepe s\u0103 se accentueze din nou, \u00een final, candidatul de culoare urc\u00e2nd vertiginos \u00een top. Motivul: Obama a avut pe 29 octombrie, concomitent, pe 7 posturi de televiziune un spot publicitar de efect. De altfel acest spot este cel mai scump din istorie. A costat aproximativ 5 mil. USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft alignnone size-full wp-image-356\" src=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/sua2-wash-post.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"621\" height=\"281\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><strong>4. Ipsos<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">Ipsos este cercetarea care d\u0103 cea mai mic\u0103 diferen\u0163\u0103 \u00eentre cei doi candida\u0163i la fotoliul preziden\u0163ial american. \u00cen final, Obama are 48%, iar McCain 43%. \u015ei aici, ca \u015fi la Wash. Post, Obama a fost preferatul publicului de-a lungul perioadei de cercetare. McCain reu\u015find s\u0103-l devanseze pe acesta doar \u00een luna septembrie, \u00een momentul \u00een care John McCain a acceptat oficial nominalizarea Partidului Republican. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft alignnone size-full wp-image-357\" src=\"http:\/\/stelapopa.unimedia.md\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/sua1-ipsos4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"262\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\"><strong>Concluzii<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">Speciali\u015ftii spun, totu\u015fi, c\u0103 votul final \u00eenc\u0103 nu este sigur. Mai ales c\u0103, potrivit sondajelor, aproximativ 4% &#8211; 8% din electorat \u00eenc\u0103 nu s-a decis cu cine sa voteze, iar voturile lor pot fi decisive. \u00cen plus, mai exist\u0103 \u015fi \u201eefectul Brandley\u201d (electoratul alb de\u015fi declar\u0103 \u00een sondaje c\u0103 voteaz\u0103 un candidat afro-american \u00een realitate nu o face atunci c\u00e2nd ajunge la urne) care poate schimba rezultatul final.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"justify;\"><span style=\"#000000;\">A\u015fadar, nimeni nu se gr\u0103be\u015fte, inclusiv din tab\u0103ra democrat\u0103, s\u0103 declare c\u0103 jocurile sunt f\u0103cute.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despre alegerile din SUA s-a scris \u015fi s-a spus cam tot. Presa mondial\u0103 a relatat pe larg acest subiect, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t ziua de m\u00e2ine ar putea fi una istoric\u0103. La c\u00e2rma Statelor Unite ale Americii ar putea s\u0103 vin\u0103 primul\u00a0 pre\u015fedinte de culoare sau cel mai \u00een etate pre\u015fedinte american de p\u00e2n\u0103 acum. M-am g\u00e2ndit [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1579,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[18],"tags":[208,227,226,229,228,225],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5866"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1579"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5866"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5908,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5866\/revisions\/5908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sergiubrega.com\/curajnet\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}